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Small Numbers Make Big Impact
By J. Jeff Toler for Shenandoah Christian Alliance j.toler@sca4christ.org
There is a principle called the Pareto Distribution that expresses a power-law probability, and is used in describing social characteristics, quality control, scientific, geophysical, actuarial, and many other types of observable phenomena. It is named for the polymath, Vilfredo Pareto, an Italian civil engineer, economist, sociologist, and philosopher. (b. July 15, 1848, d. August 19, 1923)
From this law of probability we understand the Pareto Principle, explained in the “80/20 rule; which states that 80% of the results or effects of any phenomena will derive from approximately 20% of the causes or inputs.
If we understand that we are more potent than we might otherwise assume if we would rise not from our own numbers, but from the inspiration and instruction of God.
- The Lord said to Gideon, “With the three hundred men that lapped I will save you and give the Midianites into your hands. Let all the others go home.” So Gideon sent the rest of the Israelites home but kept the three hundred, who took over the provisions and trumpets of the others. —Judges 7:7-8
We know the 80/20 rule. 80% of the church budget relies on the 20% who regularly tithe. Or, 20% of the church body will routinely volunteer for 80% of its activities and lay ministries. Having been a part of two different new church plants, I witnessed the 80/20 rule at work myself.
But there is another, more intriguing, often powerful, and sometimes insidious rule we should know more about. It’s called the “3.5% Rule.”
You never heard of it?
In the May 13, 2019 article, “The ‘3.5% rule’: How a small minority can change the world” by David Robson for BBC Online, writes, “Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts—and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change.” Unless and until they do become violent as we will see.
Robson continues, “In 1986, millions of Filipinos took to the streets of Manila in peaceful protest and prayer in the People Power movement. The Marcos regime folded on the fourth day.”
“In 2003, the people of Georgia ousted Eduard Shevardnadze through the bloodless Rose Revolution, in which protestors stormed the parliament building holding the flowers in their hands. [In] 2019, the presidents of Sudan and Algeria both announced they would step aside after decades in office, thanks to peaceful campaigns of resistance.” [https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world]
This explains why, in everything from climate change activism, to transgenderism, to the woke movement, have gained so much ground in the west so very quickly.
But bear in mind two important distinctions with the People Power and Rose Revolution movements: In each case, civil resistance by ordinary members of the public trumped the political elite to achieve radical change.
What’s missing in the prevailing climate of social activism however, is that ordinary members of the public have not been truly persuaded without the concerted efforts of more than a few dedicated activists—aided by the powerful alliance of the media and the Democratic Party ruling elite. We saw the power of civil disobedience in the dreadful Summer of 2020. But that disobedience became very violent indeed.
Yet Erica Chenoweth, a political scientist at Harvard University, contends that civil disobedience is not only the moral choice; it is also the most powerful way of shaping world politics. Robson writes, “Looking at hundreds of campaigns over the last century, Chenoweth found that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent campaigns. And although the exact dynamics will depend on many factors, she has shown it takes around 3.5% of the population actively participating in the protests to ensure serious political change.”
Not all political change is good. In places in the world where political regimes are accepting of democracy, operating in some fashion through a representative government, holding free and open elections are good. What can be expected of political change campaigns in those places? Bad political change.
Another ponderable regarding population percentage changes, is the increase in the spread of Islam around the world as we highlighted in my January 16 essay, “The Doctrine of Rape.” [https://us20.admin.mailchimp.com/campaigns/show-email?id=18247867] We read that Muslims are increasing their presence in places all over the world. Most notably in western countries.
At the same time, The West, beleaguered by socialist regimes, which only very recently seem to be struggling to maintain their hold over an increasing rise in populism, an extraordinary phenomenon is now evident.
In a recent Relatable interview with Allie Beth Stuckey, her guest, Pastor Andrew Sedra of Echo Church in Australia broke it down in a way that people in The West need to carefully consider. Once again, we will find the clues revealed during the COVID years. [https://youtu.be/bXxcY0krm6E?t=945]
The BLM riots in the summer of 2000, coinciding with the introduction of the pandemic earlier in the year were not a coincident at all by most measures. We will likely find evidence linking the two traumas over time. Government mandates were introduced to both accept the BLM and the COVID virus as legitimate responses from very dictatorial regimes.
Pastor Andrew Sedra
Sedra posits that these events revealed a strange and sinister relationship:
Islamist and Leftist, are both striving for the same goal, which is the subjugation of a free people, the hatred of liberty, and ultimately, as was horrifically demonstrated on October 7, 2023, the genocide of Jews and Christians.
Sedra was born into a Coptic Christian family in Egypt at a time when there were many more Christians than there are today. His family fled to avoid persecution and death, settling in Australia. But the Muslim population there is growing so rapidly, he has had to move his church to a different city to avoid the same persecution.
He points out that during COVID, the left employed protected status for Muslims and harsh terms for Christian churches with curfews, no-go zones, forced restrictions, church closures, and forced anti-speech laws. The Leftist government and the Islamists both desired these things when they gained and wielded power.
This is a staggering idea since most of us think the two forces have nothing in common. The truth is, however, both Islam and The Left share the same goal: a one-world government.
Sedra points this out, saying, “Islam hates America because Islam hates Christianity, and Islam hates Christianity because Islam hates Freedom. [The] left is the same. The left hates America because they hate Christianity and freedom.”
[Both are] an antichrist movement, so what you’ll figure out is that progressivism and Islam are the exact same thing. I know they’re the total opposite [with] the total same interests. So you have the unholy alliance between Godless leftism and violent Islam. They’re both violent.” [emphases added]
Violent? Didn’t Chenoweth say non-violent was more effective? Yes, until non-violence doesn’t work fast enough.
Here’s a thought experiment. Supposing a small group of Christian believers worked as hard as the vaunted 3.5% to engage with the culture of the world. Maybe after getting out of Sunday School class they engage in peaceful debates and discussions with the people in the town square, the stadium, the streets even?
Surely there are still at least 3.5% of the people in America who are Christian. Maybe they can attend the school board meetings, visit the public library where the porn for kids is shelved, and show up at… careful now… political rallies for Christian candidates.
